# Moldova's unemployment at 1.5% in 2025, yet only 50.3% of 15–64-year-olds are in work

*Moldova has the lowest unemployment rate among the countries compared, but this coexists with an employment rate of 50.3% and an inactivity rate of 47.7% among the population aged 15–64.*

- **Published:** 2026-10-13
- **Publisher:** Socium — Foundation for the Study of Society (Chișinău, Republic of Moldova)
- **Topic:** Comparative
- **URL:** https://socium.md/en/analyses/2026-10-13-moldova-s-unemployment-at-1-5-in-2025-yet-only-50-3-of-1564-year-olds-are-in-wor/
- **Data sources:** World Bank, World Development Indicators; National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS), statistical databank; Eurostat

**Key figure:** 1.5% — Unemployment rate in Moldova in 2025, ILO estimate (World Bank)

## Summary

In 2025 Moldova's unemployment rate was 1.5% (ILO estimate), below Poland (3.0%), Bulgaria (3.5%), the EU (5.9%) and Romania (6.0%), yet only 50.3% of those aged 15–64 were employed (NBS).

## Key findings

- In 2025 Moldova's unemployment rate (ILO estimate, World Bank) stood at 1.5%, compared with 3.0% in Poland, 3.5% in Bulgaria, 5.9% in the EU, 6.0% in Romania and 12.1% in Georgia. The gap is 4.5 percentage points relative to Romania and 10.6 pp relative to Georgia.
- Low unemployment coexists with low employment: in 2025 only 50.3% of the population aged 15–64 was in work (NBS), 2.0 pp less than in 2024. The inactivity rate rose to 47.7%, from 45.4%.
- Between 2014 and 2025 unemployment fell by 7.9 pp in Bulgaria, by 6.0 pp in Poland and by 4.9 pp in the EU. In Moldova it fluctuated throughout between 0.8% and 1.8%, so the low level is not the result of recent convergence.
- The NBS Labour Force Survey reports an ILO-definition unemployment rate of 3.9% for those aged 15–64 in 2025, higher than the ILO estimate. As an indicative comparison, it remains below the levels in Romania and the EU, so Moldova stays within the group of low-unemployment countries regardless of the source.
- The 2025 fall in employment is concentrated among women (from 51.1% to 47.4%) and in rural areas (from 47.4% to 44.0%). Among men and in urban areas the decline is smaller: from 53.7% to 53.4% and from 58.6% to 57.2% respectively.

## Regional ranking in 2025: Moldova first, Georgia last

According to the modelled estimates of the International Labour Organization (ILO), published by the World Bank, the unemployment rate in the Republic of Moldova was 1.5% in 2025. This is the lowest value among the countries compared: Poland stands at 3.0%, Bulgaria at 3.5%, the world average at 4.8%, the European Union at 5.9%, Romania at 6.0% and Georgia at 12.1%. The World Bank series contains no 2025 value for Ukraine, so the country cannot be included in the ranking.

The gaps are considerable. Moldova lies 1.5 pp below Poland, 2.0 pp below Bulgaria, 4.4 pp below the EU average, 4.5 pp below Romania and 10.6 pp below Georgia. Moldova's unemployment rate is roughly a quarter of the EU average and likewise a quarter of Romania's level.

Eurostat data for the 15–74 age group confirm the picture for the member states in 2025: Poland 3.1%, Bulgaria 3.5%, EU-27 6.0%, Romania 6.1%. The Eurostat dataset used does not contain an unemployment rate for Moldova, so the comparison relies on ILO estimates and NBS data.

**Unemployment rate in 2025 (ILO estimate) (% of labour force)**

| Label | Unemployment rate 2025 |
|---|---|
| Moldova | 1.505 |
| Poland | 2.976 |
| Bulgaria | 3.536 |
| World | 4.791 |
| EU | 5.926 |
| Romania | 5.992 |
| Georgia | 12.097 |

*Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS); Ukraine: no data for 2025*

## A decade of stability at low levels, while neighbours came down from high ones

Moldova's position is not the result of a recent improvement. Between 2014 and 2025 the ILO-estimated unemployment rate fluctuated between a low of 0.8% (2021) and a high of 1.8% (2015), with no clear trend. The 2025 value (1.5%) is virtually identical to those of 2014 (1.45%) and 2019 (1.5%).

Most of the countries compared recorded pronounced falls in unemployment over the same period. Bulgaria fell from 11.4% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2025 (−7.9 pp), Poland from 9.0% to 3.0% (−6.0 pp), the EU average from 10.8% to 5.9% (−4.9 pp) and Georgia from 17.4% to 12.1% (−5.3 pp). Romania is the exception: from 6.8% in 2014 it reached 6.0% in 2025, a reduction of just 0.8 pp.

In Romania, unemployment rose in 2025 to 6.0% according to the ILO estimate, from 5.4% in 2024 (+0.6 pp), the highest level in this series since 2016. According to Eurostat, the rate climbed to 6.1%, from 5.4% (+0.7 pp). This is the first year in the 2014–2025 series in which Romania exceeds the EU average in both sources: 5.9% according to the World Bank and 6.0% according to Eurostat. In Georgia, unemployment rose slightly, from 11.6% in 2024 to 12.1% in 2025 (+0.5 pp).

**Unemployment rate, 2014–2025 (ILO estimate) (% of labour force)**

| Label | Moldova | Romania | Poland | Bulgaria | EU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1.45 | 6.802 | 8.971 | 11.424 | 10.826 |
| 2015 | 1.781 | 6.812 | 7.475 | 9.143 | 10.017 |
| 2016 | 1.591 | 5.901 | 6.141 | 7.575 | 9.106 |
| 2017 | 1.622 | 4.927 | 4.867 | 6.164 | 8.132 |
| 2018 | 1.239 | 4.187 | 3.835 | 5.211 | 7.242 |
| 2019 | 1.502 | 3.912 | 3.267 | 4.148 | 6.677 |
| 2020 | 1.206 | 5.035 | 3.155 | 5.037 | 7.055 |
| 2021 | 0.794 | 5.59 | 3.268 | 5.166 | 7.027 |
| 2022 | 0.909 | 5.614 | 2.811 | 4.148 | 6.161 |
| 2023 | 1.57 | 5.589 | 2.743 | 4.319 | 6.026 |
| 2024 | 1.427 | 5.4 | 2.807 | 4.2 | 5.923 |
| 2025 | 1.505 | 5.992 | 2.976 | 3.536 | 5.926 |

*Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS)*

## Two sources, two levels: 1.5% according to the ILO, 3.9% according to the NBS

The Labour Force Survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova gives a different level. For 2025 the NBS reports an ILO-definition unemployment rate of 3.9% for the 15–64 age group and 3.8% for the entire population aged 15 and over. ILO estimates derive from an internationally harmonised model and may differ from the figures published directly by the national statistical office. The available data, however, do not allow the exact cause of the difference to be identified.

The comparative conclusion holds regardless of the source, bearing in mind that the NBS figure refers to those aged 15–64, whereas the ILO estimates cover the population aged 15 and over. Even at 3.9%, Moldova remains below Romania (6.0%) and the EU average (5.9%), within the group of low-unemployment countries alongside Poland (3.0%) and Bulgaria (3.5%). Only its position in the ranking changes: on the ILO estimate Moldova ranks first, while on the NBS figure it would rank third, behind Poland and Bulgaria.

The NBS series shows fluctuations within a relatively narrow band. ILO-definition unemployment among those aged 15–64 was 5.3% in 2019, fell to 3.2% in 2022, rose to 4.7% in 2023 and returned to 3.9% in 2025, 0.2 pp below the 2024 level (4.1%). The series provided begins in 2019, the year of the survey's methodological revision, which is why NBS comparisons do not extend further back.

## The paradox: low unemployment, low employment

The unemployment rate measures only those actively seeking work, relative to the labour force. In Moldova the labour force is itself narrow. In 2025 the participation rate in the 15–64 age group was 52.3% (NBS), down 2.3 pp from 54.6% in 2024, while the employment rate fell to 50.3%, from 52.3% (−2.0 pp). Almost half of the working-age population (47.7%) is inactive: neither employed nor seeking work.

2025 interrupts the improvement of 2023–2024. The inactivity rate among those aged 15–64 had fallen from 50.6% in 2019 to 45.6% in 2023 and 45.4% in 2024, before rising again to 47.7% in 2025 (+2.3 pp in a single year). Internal disparities remain large: inactivity among those aged 15–64 is 54.4% in rural areas compared with 40.3% in urban areas (a gap of 14.1 pp), and 50.9% among women compared with 44.2% among men.

The 2025 fall in employment was not uniform. Among women aged 15–64, the employment rate fell from 51.1% to 47.4% (−3.7 pp), and in rural areas from 47.4% to 44.0% (−3.4 pp). Among men the decline was only 0.3 pp (from 53.7% to 53.4%), and in urban areas 1.4 pp (from 58.6% to 57.2%).

Unemployment is concentrated among young people. In 2025 the ILO-definition unemployment rate for those aged 15–24 was 7.4%, almost double the average for those aged 15–64 (3.9%), although it fell by 2.4 pp from 2024 (9.8%). In the 25–34 age group, unemployment rose from 4.5% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025. Young women aged 15–24 have an unemployment rate of 10.9%, compared with 5.2% among young men of the same age, a gap of 5.7 pp. The data provided do not include employment rates for the comparator countries, so the employment gap relative to Romania or the EU cannot be quantified.

**Moldova, population aged 15–64: participation, employment, inactivity and ILO-definition unemployment, 2019–2025 (%)**

| Label | Participation rate | Employment rate | Inactivity rate | ILO-definition unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 49.4 | 46.8 | 50.6 | 5.3 |
| 2020 | 47.6 | 45.7 | 52.4 | 3.9 |
| 2021 | 49.1 | 47.5 | 50.9 | 3.3 |
| 2022 | 49.9 | 48.4 | 50.1 | 3.2 |
| 2023 | 54.4 | 51.8 | 45.6 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 54.6 | 52.3 | 45.4 | 4.1 |
| 2025 | 52.3 | 50.3 | 47.7 | 3.9 |

*Source: NBS, Labour Force Survey (statbank.statistica.md)*

**Moldova: employment rate among those aged 15–64, by area of residence and sex, 2024 and 2025 (%)**

| Label | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Urban | 58.6 | 57.2 |
| Rural | 47.4 | 44 |
| Men | 53.7 | 53.4 |
| Women | 51.1 | 47.4 |

*Source: NBS, Labour Force Survey (statbank.statistica.md)*

## Low unemployment does not translate into comparable incomes

If the unemployment rate were a sufficient indicator of prosperity, Moldova ought to rank well regionally. It does not. GDP per capita at purchasing power parity was 19,996 international dollars in 2025 (World Bank), or 30.5% of the EU average (65,503) and 39.3% of Romania's level (50,895). Among the countries compared, only Ukraine (18,905) has a lower level. Georgia, with the highest unemployment in the group (12.1%), has GDP per capita of 29,414 dollars, 47% above Moldova's.

Average gross monthly earnings reached MDL 15,594.5 in 2025, equivalent to €796 (NBS). This is 9.6% more than in 2024 (€726.6) and 2.2 times the 2019 level (€367.7). Nominal growth is substantial, but the starting point remains low. The data provided allow neither adjustment for inflation nor a direct comparison of wages with neighbouring countries.

Low unemployment coexists with a rapidly shrinking population: −1.75% in 2025, the steepest decline among the countries compared (World Bank). It also coexists with remittances equivalent to 9.4% of GDP in 2025, around 11 times the EU average (0.8%). These figures describe the context and do not demonstrate a causal relationship. They do suggest, however, that part of the pressure on the labour market may manifest itself through emigration and inactivity rather than through statistically measured unemployment.

## Implications for Moldova

The unemployment rate is an insufficient indicator for assessing Moldova's labour market. For policymakers and donors, the employment rate (50.3% among those aged 15–64 in 2025) and the inactivity rate are more relevant than the 1.5% or 3.9% unemployment figure.

The 2025 setback (employment −2.0 pp, participation −2.3 pp in a single year) warrants quarterly monitoring to establish whether it is a temporary fluctuation or a reversal of the positive trend of 2023–2024. Data by area of residence and sex show that the decline is concentrated in rural areas and among women.

For comparison with the member states, the relevant indicator is the employment rate for those aged 20–64, which the NBS already publishes: 55.0% in 2025, compared with 56.8% in 2024. The current dataset, however, does not contain comparable values for Romania, Poland, Bulgaria or the EU average. With them, the employment gap could be quantified precisely.

The difference between the ILO estimate (1.5%) and the NBS figure (3.9%) shows that statistical harmonisation also has practical stakes. Those who rely solely on international series may obtain a more favourable picture of the labour market than that emerging from national data.

## Methodology

The unemployment rate used for the international comparison comes from the ILO modelled estimates published by the World Bank (indicator SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS, % of total labour force, aged 15 and over) for 2025. No 2025 value for Ukraine is available in the dataset provided. Eurostat data (15–74 age group, % of the active population) are cited for EU member states. For Moldova, data from the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS) Labour Force Survey are also presented: the ILO-definition unemployment rate, participation rate, employment rate and inactivity rate for the 15–64, 20–64 and total 15+ age groups, by area of residence and sex. The series provided covers 2019–2025 and begins in the year of the survey's methodological revision. The difference in level between the ILO estimate (1.5%) and the NBS figure (3.9% for those aged 15–64) reflects different estimation methods, whose exact contribution cannot be determined from the data. The comparison between the NBS figure (15–64) and ILO estimates for other countries (15+) is indicative. GDP per capita is expressed at purchasing power parity in current international dollars (World Bank, 2025). Average gross monthly earnings come from the NBS (2025), in lei and euros, in nominal terms, unadjusted for inflation. The dataset does not contain employment rates for the comparator countries, so the employment gap relative to Romania and the EU cannot be quantified. Differences between rates are expressed in percentage points (pp). Population and remittance data are descriptive and do not imply causal relationships.

## Sources

- [World Bank, World Development Indicators](https://data.worldbank.org)
- [National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS), statistical databank](https://statbank.statistica.md)
- [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser)

## How to cite

Socium. (2026, October 13). Moldova's unemployment at 1.5% in 2025, yet only 50.3% of 15–64-year-olds are in work. Foundation for the Study of Society. https://socium.md/en/analyses/2026-10-13-moldova-s-unemployment-at-1-5-in-2025-yet-only-50-3-of-1564-year-olds-are-in-wor/

Licence: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — reuse with attribution to Socium.