GDP per capita 2025: Moldova at 77.8% of world average, but losing ground to Romania

Moldova and the world average: 20.6 percentage points gained in a decade

In 2025, the GDP per capita of the Republic of Moldova, expressed at purchasing power parity (PPP) in current international dollars, reached USD 19,995.8, according to the World Bank. The world average was USD 25,703.7. Moldova thus stands at 77.8% of the global level, with an absolute gap of USD 5,708.0 per capita.

In 2014, the ratio was 57.2% (USD 8,643.1 against USD 15,115.3). Over a decade, Moldova has gained 20.6 percentage points relative to the world average. The European Union recorded USD 65,503.1 per capita in 2025. Relative to the EU, Moldova's share rose from 23.1% in 2014 to 30.5% in 2025, an increase of 7.4 pp.

Expressed as multiples, Moldova's PPP GDP per capita grew 2.31-fold between 2014 and 2025 (+131.4%). The world average grew 1.70-fold (+70.0%) and the EU average 1.75-fold (+75.3%). These rates are nominal, in current dollars: they include global inflation and revisions to purchasing power parities, and should therefore not be read as real economic growth.

The 2021 peak and the 2022 shock

Convergence has not been linear. In 2021, Moldova reached 78.9% of the world average (USD 15,682.1 against USD 19,865.9), the highest point in the series. In 2022, the ratio fell to 74.7% (USD 16,442.1 against USD 22,005.9), a decline of 4.2 pp in a single year. This is the only year of decline in the period under review. The explanation lies in relative growth rates: Moldova's nominal PPP GDP per capita rose by only 4.8% in 2022, while the world average increased by 10.8%.

The recovery has been gradual: 75.9% in 2023, 76.0% in 2024 and 77.8% in 2025, still 1.1 pp below the 2021 level. In absolute terms, the gap with the world average was USD 4,183.9 in 2021. It widened to USD 5,882.8 in 2024 and narrowed to USD 5,708.0 in 2025, remaining USD 1,524.1 larger than in 2021. In other words, Moldova has caught up in relative terms, but not in absolute distance.

By contrast, 2025 brought the strongest growth rate in the comparison group. Moldova's PPP GDP per capita rose by 7.1% in nominal terms compared with 2024, virtually on a par with Georgia (+7.0%). It was followed by Bulgaria (+5.9%), Poland (+5.9%), the world average (+4.7%), Romania (+3.7%), the EU (+2.7%) and Ukraine (+1.4%).

Neighbours growing faster: Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia

While the comparison with the world average is favourable to Moldova, the comparison with regional economies is less so. Between 2014 and 2025, Romania's PPP GDP per capita grew 2.47-fold (from USD 20,633.0 to USD 50,895.1). Bulgaria's also grew 2.47-fold (from USD 17,990.8 to USD 44,451.1), and Georgia's 2.50-fold (from USD 11,770.7 to USD 29,414.4). All three exceeded Moldova's multiple of 2.31. Poland grew more slowly, 2.13-fold (from USD 25,459.7 to USD 54,262.4).

As a result, Moldova lost ground against three of the four economies compared:

– relative to Romania, from 41.9% in 2014 to 39.3% in 2025 (−2.6 pp);

– relative to Bulgaria, from 48.0% to 45.0% (−3.1 pp);

– relative to Georgia, from 73.4% to 68.0% (−5.4 pp).

Only against Poland did its share increase, from 33.9% to 36.9% (+2.9 pp).

Georgia is a relevant benchmark. In 2014, it stood at 77.9% of the world average, virtually Moldova's position today. It surpassed the world average in 2022 (102.1%) and reached 114.4% in 2025. Unlike in Moldova, this growth occurred alongside a rising population in 2024 (+2.6%) and 2025 (+3.2%). This trajectory, however, is not automatically a model to emulate. In 2025, Georgia also had an ILO-estimated unemployment rate of 12.1% and remittances equivalent to 11.2% of GDP: growth in GDP per capita was accompanied by persistent labour market imbalances.

Ukraine: an overtaking subject to methodological caveats

In 2014, Ukraine's PPP GDP per capita (USD 10,493.7) was higher than Moldova's (USD 8,643.1), which stood at 82.4% of its neighbour's level. By 2021, the ratio had risen to 87.9% (USD 15,682.1 against USD 17,846.4). In 2022, Ukraine's indicator fell by 17.3% to USD 14,767.7, and Moldova (USD 16,442.1) moved ahead for the first time in the period under review. In 2025, the difference is USD 1,090.8 in Moldova's favour (USD 19,995.8 against USD 18,905.0), or +5.8%. Relative to the world average, Ukraine fell from 89.8% in 2021 to 73.5% in 2025, a loss of 16.3 pp.

This comparison should be interpreted with caution. The indicator is a ratio of GDP to population, and Ukraine's population estimates in the World Bank series are extremely volatile: −7.6% in 2022, −8.4% in 2023, +0.3% in 2024 and +2.9% in 2025. Refugee movements alter the denominator independently of economic developments. The Moldova–Ukraine ranking may therefore be, at least in part, a statistical effect of demographic estimates rather than solely a reflection of differences in output.

The same observation applies, in part, to Moldova. According to the same source, the country's population declined by 2.84% in 2023 and by 1.75% in 2025. A shrinking denominator mechanically raises GDP per capita. Consequently, part of Moldova's convergence with the world average reflects population decline, not only economic growth.

Implications for Moldova

For the EU accession process, the relevant figure is not Moldova's position relative to the world average but relative to the European average: 30.5% in 2025. Bulgaria, at 67.9% of the EU average, and Romania, at 77.7%, illustrate how long the path to convergence is, even for countries that have been member states for almost two decades. The available data do not allow an estimate of how long it would take Moldova to reach these levels.

Convergence monitoring should distinguish between GDP per capita and total GDP. With the population having declined by 1.75% in 2025, the per capita indicator can rise even in years of economic stagnation. A set of complementary indicators, including in real terms and on an employment basis, would reduce the risk of a statistical improvement being mistaken for an economic one.

Georgia's example shows that a decade can move an economy from 78% to over 114% of the world average. Yet it also shows that such a leap can coexist with unemployment of 12.1% and remittances of 11.2% of GDP (2025). The structure of growth matters as much as its pace.

Moldova's remittances fell from 22.1% of GDP in 2014 to 9.4% in 2025 (World Bank). This trend suggests that part of the convergence rests on domestic output rather than transfers. Correlation, however, does not prove causation. A sectoral analysis of the sources of growth would be needed to determine how much of the 20.6 pp gain relative to the world average is sustainable.

Sources

• World Bank, World Development Indicators

@misc{socium20261016,
  author       = {{Socium -- Foundation for the Study of Society}},
  title        = {GDP per capita 2025: Moldova at 77.8\% of world average, but losing ground to Romania},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {10},
  day          = {16},
  howpublished = {\url{https://socium.md/en/analyses/2026-10-16-gdp-per-capita-2025-moldova-at-77-8-of-world-average-but-losing-ground-to-romani/}},
  note         = {Data: World Bank, World Development Indicators},
  language     = {english}
}